A Newsletter Valuing Change

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January/February 2006
Best Wishes for a Prosperous 2006!

Decision-making involves:

Asking the right question
Gathering information
Coming up with options
Making a plan

There are a surprising number of decision-making methods.
You can find explanations of these and other methods at www.mindtools.com

Paired Comparison Analysis

Decision Tree Analysis

Plus/Minus Implications

Six Thinking Hats

Then there are the methods that many of us rely upon . . .

Intuition (gut)

Chance – flipping a coin

Omission – no choice

Did you know that the odds of winning the lottery in which you pick 6 numbers out of 49 is 1 in 13,983,816? Based on those odds buying a lottery ticket is a bad decision. Welch shows the expected value of a lottery ticket is a loss of 86 cents. So you are much better off keeping your dollar.

The lottery is a good example of how human nature overrides making economically sound decisions.

How do you make decisions?

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Visualize Optimal Results

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A Book Supporting Change

Decisions, Decisions: The Art of Effective Decision Making, by David A. Welch, is the book I finally chose to recommend on decision-making. It was a very difficult choice - how ironic is that? J I could not find a book that made the various methods of decision-making easy to get through. The humor and practical aspects of Welch's book were the deciding factors for me.

He gives you tools to help you make decisions when you do not have all the information: for example, when you can not predict the future or when you can not process all the information even if you had it. His book gives you insight on how to make the most of your decisions in the context of uncertainty.

Buy This Book From Amazon.com

"We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are." Anais Nin

Personal Story

In order to decide to go ahead and print my BusinessAction™ cards I relied on my written plan, my discussions with my coach, my values, opinions of others, my gut, and the cards themselves.

When I was down to making the decision to meet the deadline I set, I shuffled the Time Management cards. The first card I got said "Today I will finish what I start." I interpreted that to mean I had to publish the cards.

The next card said "Today I will break the task down into small steps. Then take the first small step." So I ordered a small number to test the market, which was also a part of my written plan.

By the way, I'm thrilled with the reaction to the cards and surprised to have even sold decks as far away as Sweden and Japan as well as here in Seattle.

Thank you for your purchases and support.

Go to www.BusinessActionCards.com

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